Week 9 NFL picks, odds, best bets and player prop -

After a 2-2 week, things might finally be getting back on track for our weekly picks.

The Carolina Panthers not only covered the three-point spread this past weekend, they won outright over the Houston Texans, 15-13, on a 23-yard field goal as time expired. The key to my handicap was the potential for an improved Carolina offense with coordinator Thomas Brown calling the plays, and while it wasn’t an overwhelming showing, rookie quarterback Bryce Young completed 22 of 31 passes for 235 yards and a touchdown in his first career win. It was also his first NFL game with a passer rating above 100 (103.6). There is clearly still room for the Panthers’ offense to grow, but we will take the victory and the cover. New York Jets quarterback Zach Wilson also added a win to our ledger. The third-year signal caller threw 36 passes against the New York Giants — and none of them were intercepted, cashing the under 0.5 interceptions prop at plus odds.

It was not, however, a perfect Week 8. Indianapolis Colts quarterback Gardner Minshew ran only once for three yards, falling short of the 7½ rushing yards he needed for that player prop. And our second team pick, the Chicago Bears, were embarrassed by the Los Angeles Chargers in prime time to the tune of 30-13, never threatening to cover the spread.

This week is going to be tough, and we started out with just one pick before adding a player prop. There are a plethora of quarterback injuries around the league, and 12 of the 14 games on this week’s schedule feature home favorites (including the Kansas City Chiefs, listed as the home team for an international game in Frankfurt, Germany). Eight of those were lined at -2½ early in the week.

Best bets record: 6-7

Player prop record: 5-3

Picks were made against the consensus point spreads as of Wednesday morning; odds that have since changed have been updated in bold type, but picks are locked in at the earlier odds.

Bye week: Jacksonville Jaguars, San Francisco 49ers, Detroit Lions, Denver Broncos

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Houston Texans (-2½)

Sunday, 1 p.m. | CBS

Pick: Texans -2½

This is a fade of the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay is coming off a 24-18 loss to the Buffalo Bills on Thursday night, and that performance was worse than it might appear. On their second drive of the game, the Bills failed to convert third and fourth downs on the Bucs’ one-yard line. Later, the Bucs benefited from a fluky interception that gave them excellent field position on Buffalo’s 23-yard line, and the subsequent drive ended with a touchdown two plays later. Overall, Tampa Bay netted seven fewer points than expected based on the down, distance and field position of their offensive and defensive plays, per data from website TruMedia.

Tampa Bay has also yet to post an above-average offensive success rate — the rate of plays that improve a team’s chance of scoring — this season. Houston, on the other hand, has had six performances (in seven games) at least on par with an average NFL offense.

Los Angeles Chargers (-3½) at New York Jets

Monday, 8:15 p.m. | ABC, ESPN, ESPN2

Pick: New York Jets +3½ -110 (This pick was originally Jets +3, but it became a best bet when the line moved to +3½.)

I’m not sure how we got to the Jets catching 3½ points. Using the market implied ratings found at Inpredictable, the Chargers have been 1.9 points per game better than an average team, while the Jets have been 2.2 points per game worse, implying the Chargers would be four-point favorites on a neutral field. But this game is being played in the Meadowlands, which should adjust the line to Chargers -2½, or maybe Chargers -3. Getting the Jets +3½ is about a 12 percent edge if you think the game should be Chargers -2½ and a six percent edge if you think it should be Chargers -3.

Plus, the Chargers have not shown an ability to cover big margins. Dating back to last season — a span of 25 games, including the playoffs — 12 of their games have finished with a final margin of three points or less. Three of their seven games in 2023 have been decided by a field goal or less.

Player prop of the week

Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts under 30.5 rushing yards

We have no idea exactly how much Hurts’s left knee is bothering him, although he got up and left the podium during Wednesday’s news conference when one reporter asked about the injury. Jay Glazer of Fox Sports reported on Sunday that Hurts has been dealing with a bone bruise in his knee for weeks and also reported that Hurts “re-aggravated” the injury after he took a helmet to the knee in a Week 7 win over the Miami Dolphins. This past weekend, Hurts had a season low three designed runs against the Washington Commanders, and gained just six yards on the ground. His scrambles and rushing totals have also been on the decline the past few weeks.

Fewer runs means less rushing yardage, so I am taking the under on Hurts this week against the Dallas Cowboys, a team that has allowed just one quarterback to gain more than one total rushing yard off designed runs this season. (Joshua Dobbs had five designed rushes for 50 yards in the Arizona Cardinals’ Week 3 upset, when he finished with 55 yards on the ground.)

The plays above represent our best bets of the week because our analysis shows their value are the most lucrative compared with what we expect to happen on the field. Below, you will find against-the-spread picks for all of the games on this week’s schedule. However, trying to pick every game is something of a fool’s errand. The house wins so often partly because bettors try to make too many plays when the odds aren’t in their favor. Keep that in mind when evaluating the remaining games from this week’s slate.

Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2½)

Thursday, 8:15 p.m. | Prime Video

Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers -2½

Miami Dolphins vs. Kansas City Chiefs (-1½) in Frankfurt, Germany

Sunday, 9:30 a.m. | NFL Network, NFL Plus

Pick: Miami Dolphins +2½ (This line has since moved down.)

Arizona Cardinals at Cleveland Browns (-8)

Sunday, 1 p.m. | CBS

Pick: Arizona Cardinals +8

Chicago Bears at New Orleans Saints (-8½)

Sunday, 1 p.m. | CBS

Pick: Chicago Bears +7½ (This line has since moved up.)

Los Angeles Rams at Green Bay Packers (-3½)

Sunday, 1 p.m. | Fox

Pick: Green Bay Packers -3 (This line has since moved up.)

Minnesota Vikings at Atlanta Falcons (-4½)

Sunday, 1 p.m. | Fox

Pick: Atlanta Falcons -4½

Seattle Seahawks at Baltimore Ravens (-6)

Sunday, 1 p.m. | CBS

Pick: Baltimore Ravens -5½ (This number has since moved up.)

Washington Commanders at New England Patriots (-3½)

Sunday, 1 p.m. | Fox

Pick: New England Patriots -3½

Indianapolis Colts (-2½) at Carolina Panthers

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. | CBS

Pick: Carolina Panthers +2½

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-3)

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. | Fox

Pick: Dallas Cowboys +3

New York Giants at Las Vegas Raiders (-1½)

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. | Fox

Pick: New York Giants +2 (This number has since moved down.)

Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals (-2)

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. | NBC

Pick: Cincinnati Bengals -2½ (This number has since moved down.)

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